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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:33 am 
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Weremensh wrote:
That's nonsense. The self reported income of his voters during the South Carolina primary was supposed to be that high (for what that's worth); but there is no way that a candidate who's biggest predictor of support is never having attended college can have supporters with a median individual income that's more than half that high. If there were any truth to that then the red states would be contributing to the national budget instead of being money sinks; and oil states aside, they are all money sinks.

OK, that figure was from primaries exit polls, but it was an average of all the primary states and not just South Carolina.

Primary voters as a whole are significantly richer than the average American. The poor don't vote, especially in primaries, so the average household income isn't very useful as a baseline. You need the average income of likely voters. Trump primary voters were richer than Clinton or Sanders primary voters, but not as rich as Rubio or Kasich voters, so I suppose you could say that they are downmarket only by the standards of Republicans.

Separately, there is Gallup poll data to support the notion that Trump voters aren't especially economically downtrodden.
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He finds that individuals who are struggling economically are not more likely to support Trump, nor are people living in areas that have suffered a loss of manufacturing jobs, an influx of immigration, or competition from China. By contrast, people in areas where whites are struggling health-wise, and in terms of intergenerational mobility (and in areas that are very racially segregated), do seem more likely to back Trump.


Even if you take out the minorities and just look at whites (median income $62,000), people who have a favourable view of Trump aren't the poorer ones.

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Nonetheless, Trump supporters tend to be blue-collar and less educated: On the other hand, Rothwell also finds that Trump supporters are more likely to work in blue-collar fields and to have less education. This fact, however, sits uneasily with Trump’s greater support among the wealthy and lower support among the poor, and suggests that his sweet spot is less-educated people in blue-collar fields who are nonetheless doing pretty well economically.

He's getting cops and plumbers, basically. I don't see them going away and doing what they're told either. They've been actively booing conventional Republicans on the campaign trail. What I'm saying is that this makes things even trickier for the Republican elites because it's not like they can go away and pretend that Trump supporters were a bunch of ordinarily non-voting hillbillies who he managed to get riled up. They're losing their base.


Last edited by Passiflora on Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:45 am 
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Silly Green Monkey wrote:
I'm more surprised no one's picked up on his defense against the women accusing him of assault----"she was ugly".

I did notice his "she was too ugly to molest" defence, it's just that it had so much competition from the dumpster fire that is his mouth.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:13 pm 
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It's said that Ecuador has cut Assange off from the Internet, rather hampering the potential for Wikileaks to funnel more FSB press releases to the media. With that in mind, Sen. Rubio has said we shouldn't pay much attention to such stories because they come from bad people. Not when they first came out, not when it became evident it came from the FSB, but now that it looks like there won't be any more. High-minded of him, no?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:36 pm 
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He is reenacting the Aesop's fable about the fox and the grapes.

(Weird story, since when did foxes eat grapes?)

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2016 9:14 am 
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Final debate reaction:

George Washington is SPINNING in his grave right now. For a major party candidate to suggest that the peaceful transition of power, which has been the HALLMARK of the United States for the last 220 years, would not continue is an abomination. (Yes, Hillary, i noticed your mistake during the debate. You counted from 1776, not 1796 when George Washington stepped down. Thank you Lin-Manuel Miranda.)

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:56 am 
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Reacting to the "she is ugly" defence is tricky. You'd need to word your statements very carefully that you don't get quote mined for something that sounds like:
* Yes i agree she is ugly
* No she is not ugly because of xy.
* I would like to grope her, what man would not

After all you don't want to start a discussion about beauty standards at that juncture, any argument why she would make a "good" target for molesters can be painted as victim blaming. So that is a bit of a minefield and i guess a lot of people just want to walk into that.

If Wikileaks can't keep running for a while without Assanage personally, then they have a serious bottleneck. Also i think releasing information with a timeing based on political events (such as Assanage has implied with promising an October suprise) runs counter to what would make it usefully as whistleblowing plattform IMO. They should process and eventually publish stuff as soon as they get it and depending how fast they can process it, and not try political machinations on their own.

I don't know that much about foxes, but some carnivores like dogs do eat grapes among other fruits and berries. So assuming foxes do it as well seems conceiveable.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:29 pm 
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Dogs and bears are actually omnivores, though they may prefer meat when available. Dogs love avocados (and don't drop a piece of pie near one).

I suppose the case could be made that the important precedent wasn't President Washington stepping down so much as General Washington stepping down. President Washington had no choice; he personally was in no shape to try a third term even if he could stand the job; but as a General he could well have kept power if he wanted. That said, it's still not 1776 so much as 1783. Ok, so the President of the Continental Congresses all stepped down too.

Sheesh. Why couldn't she have just said 1796?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:37 pm 
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Dogs actually have a carnivorous bias. They're not true omnivores because their systems are optimized for meat consumption. They have the added bonus of enzymes that help break down plant matter into viable nutrients, but nothing else in their digestive track is really fine tuned for that sort of stuff. Trying to feed them a diet consisting only of fruits and vegetables can make them really sick if you're not careful.

Dunno about bears or foxes, though.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 12:31 am 
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Bears are true omnivores, just like we are. They'll take meat when they can get it, but their diets consist largely of roots and berries otherwise, especialy in the autumn, when they're trying to bulk up for winter.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 7:10 am 
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Wolfs also eat part of their veggies in pretty much the least PETA friendly way imaginable. They eat the stomach content of of herbivores they have killed.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 22, 2016 10:36 pm 
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Not to change the subject (lest the arctoids object); but I've been hearing some folks arguing that we can't trust the women who came forward against The Donald because they didn't do so until now. I think that's going to get a tiny bit harder to say with a straight face now that he's threatened to sue all these women (which is of course what he would have done if they came forward previously). Credit where it's due, I think they'll all deliver their lines on cue anyway; but it will be a bit harder.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:17 pm 
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I suppose we have Trump to thank for legitimizing the idea that gropers should be reported, instead of merely ignored or tolerated, as though lecherous idiots are just an unpleasant fact of life that women are supposed to put up with.

He really can't help himself, can he? He has to threaten to sue anybody who crosses him. It is absolutely critical to the preservation of his ego. I feel like I'm no longer watching a political campaign, but a psychodrama.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2016 10:33 pm 
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So...the head of the FBI reopens the Clinton E-mail mess on the strength of e-mails the FBI didn't even have a warrant to read. Interestingly, the first formal accusation of violating the Hatch Act was filed by a lawyer who worked for Dubya. I imagine the last thing the Republicans want is this to be the ruling precedent when Clinton's appointee is running the FBI, and since nothing will be done with the charge until after the election anyway, why not?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 2:00 pm 
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About Johnson:

> not being able to name one foreign leader when asked in a live event on MSNBC.

one foreign leader *he admired*, not any foreign leader at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:05 pm 
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Lessee. Polls open in about 36 hours. Comey just recleared Clinton of criminal wrongdoing. Still quite discrete about the investigation into Putin and Trump cooperating on getting Trump elected. I suppose one might say batting .500 is better than nothing, if one were so inclined. One might also bet the blood is going to be ankle deep in FBI headquarters and in their New York office before this is all over, if one were so inclined.

Interesting aside; it's said that about a third of the votes have already been cast. Supposedly Nevada has already been called for Clinton by the GOP on the ground; who are allowing that they're terrified that they will lose the state legislature and two congresscritters, as well as a senate seat, unless everything else breaks their way (massive Hispanic turnout for the lose). That aside she's supposed to be up about 4 million votes out of 40, which would make it somewhat more difficult for Trump to get a popular majority on Tuesday. Not that we elect based on the popular vote; but it's hard to lose it in a two way race and still get the electoral votes on your side.

One final thought; if Clinton carries North Carolina then the election is over and she's won. The polls in NC close at 7:30 PM local time; so by 8:00 PM Eastern Standard time we may be free to start our serious drinking (one way or the other). Though I personally will also be watching a congressional race here in New York; if the Democrat wins, our governor is probably going to be thrown out in two years by said Democrat. That would make me happy.

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