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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2016 8:55 pm 
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CCC wrote:
...Trump is sounding like trouble. On the bright side, he's clearly not deliberately messing up the country; on the other side, messing up is happening and he's not wonderfully interested in stopping it...

Y'know, it's not like he's accidentally proposing a cabinet where almost everyone displays at least two of the traits of thief, ideologue, and psychopath. What he's doing may not be extensively thought out, but it's deliberate.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:24 pm 
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So the latest Secretary of State candidate is an oil executive with a history of kissing Putin's butt. And the CIA now says Russian hacking was clearly aimed at helping Trump. This is seriously creepy.

If you were to adopt an amoral, pragmatic, Kissingerian view of global realpolitik, is there any possible logic to justify the US aligning with Russia?

Because I'm trying to figure out whether being best buddies with Putin is just morally reprehensible (like being allies with Saudi Arabia), or also suicidal to American interests.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:20 pm 
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Yeah, it's definitely setting off a whole slew of alarms.

Fortunately, there's whispers of a few Republican Electorates who've not taken too kindly to the antics Trump has gotten up to in the time since the election closed on November 8th, his increasingly apparent ties to Russia among their concerns. Word has it that they're trying to find an alternative candidate to put their vote for on the 19th.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:31 pm 
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Kea wrote:
Because I'm trying to figure out whether being best buddies with Putin is just morally reprehensible (like being allies with Saudi Arabia), or also suicidal to American interests.

Aside from being potentially important if Trump really is trying to get us into a full blown confrontation with China, there aren't too many ways Russia would be essential to American interests as opposed to Trump's. Useful, if you ignore the price; but not essential.

Of course, it's the price that's the killer.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 12:29 am 
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Does Putin have any appetite to get into a conflict with China? China has been trying to extend its economic and diplomatic influence into a number of former Soviet Central Asian states through its confusingly-named "One Belt One Road" initiative. They're trying to sign deals to build highways and ports and railways all up and down the countries ending in -stan. Partly they're trying to burn off their excess industrial capacity that way, but mostly they're trying to build corridors of trade and influence that circumvent the US-navy protected shipping lanes.

Wonder how Putin feels about China rummaging in his back yard?

Kajin wrote:
Fortunately, there's whispers of a few Republican Electorates who've not taken too kindly to the antics Trump has gotten up to in the time since the election closed on November 8th, his increasingly apparent ties to Russia among their concerns. Word has it that they're trying to find an alternative candidate to put their vote for on the 19th.

It still sounds like a long shot, but if they do pull it off, how does this not lead to Waco X 20 armed conflict? Seems like you're screwed either way.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 2:55 am 
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Weremensh wrote:
CCC wrote:
...Trump is sounding like trouble. On the bright side, he's clearly not deliberately messing up the country; on the other side, messing up is happening and he's not wonderfully interested in stopping it...

Y'know, it's not like he's accidentally proposing a cabinet where almost everyone displays at least two of the traits of thief, ideologue, and psychopath. What he's doing may not be extensively thought out, but it's deliberate.


Well, granted, but I don't think he'd be selecting for those traits. From - well, mainly from what's been said right here - it looks like he's selecting for the trait of doing nice things for Trump and/or Trump's business interests. He just doesn't much care about the rest.

So, if there was a wonderful human being and otherwise brilliant politician who for some reason tended to give Trump nice things even when it wasn't strictly legal to do so, he'd have a decent shot at getting into cabinet right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:18 pm 
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According to the BBC, Trump wants economic concessions from Beijing in order to continue the one China policy. I'm sure they'll be happy to go along with that, and would be equally happy to buy his gracious acceptance of their presence in Tibet. And Hong Kong. And what the heck, Shanghai...

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:03 pm 
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That is either the worst idea in the history of ideas, or it's so crazy it might just work. Beijing will be apoplectic.

It should be noted that there are quite few people here in Hong Kong who cheered Trump's phonecall with Tsai Ing-wen and like Trump because they think he will be a thorn in Beijing's side. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, sort of thing. But I don't think they realize that Trump would easily sell out Taiwan and all the rest if he thinks it'll get him a pretty penny.

Also, what do you mean by "Shanghai"? Last I checked they were firmly under CCP control.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:06 pm 
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He could still be quite a thorn in Beijing's side, especially if his idea of 'suitable economic concessions' keeps slowly drifting upwards.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:40 am 
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Oh, I'm sure he'll annoy China. But the error is believing that his annoying China will benefit us.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:00 am 
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Kea wrote:
Also, what do you mean by "Shanghai"? Last I checked they were firmly under CCP control.

So's Tibet and Hong Kong. That said, once Beijing acknowledges Trump's right to decide whether or not Taiwan is theirs, there's no logical stopping point.

And in passing it would also mean giving back all the islands they're trying to steal in the Pacific and abandoning the rather grandiose claims that go with them. All the other nations involved can probably outbribe Trump if that's what it takes.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:21 am 
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Kea wrote:
Oh, I'm sure he'll annoy China. But the error is believing that his annoying China will benefit us.


From the sound of this thread, I don't think he's planning to benefit you. I get the impression, rather, that he's planning to benefit his own bank account, and that his actual views on anyone else's independence are probably fairly neutral.

I could be wrong. I know very little of the guy.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:07 am 
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I know he's not planning to benefit us. But there's a lot of pissed off Hong Kongers who are cheering his actions because they falsely equate "America taking a tough line with China" with "America siding with people bullied by China", a.k.a, us.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:53 am 
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It's pretty amazing that Russia has successfully influenced an American election. You'd think that would be considered an act of war.

It's also disheartening that so many Republicans are willing to accept it as part of the cost of doing business. The Gipper must be spinning in his grave right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:04 pm 
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Weremensh wrote:
So's Tibet and Hong Kong. That said, once Beijing acknowledges Trump's right to decide whether or not Taiwan is theirs, there's no logical stopping point.

But Shanghai doesn't need any pacifying. It came pre-pacified. There's no bargaining position there.

Trump: "I'll leave Shanghai alone if you reduce your tariffs".
China: "That's nice. We'll leave Oklahoma alone if you shut up."

Weremensh wrote:
And in passing it would also mean giving back all the islands they're trying to steal in the Pacific and abandoning the rather grandiose claims that go with them. All the other nations involved can probably outbribe Trump if that's what it takes.

Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam? What could they give Trump that he wants so badly that he won't sell them out to China? A sweet hotel resort site?

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