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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 5:45 am 
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What about the time between the primaries and the general election?

Say they block all Obama candidates until the primaries for some reasons they make up, and then figure that the next candidate is quite acceptable actually. Because then they either have won their primaries or have lost them anyway.

And hope that for the next election cycle all is old news.

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:02 am 
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arcosh wrote:
What about the time between the primaries and the general election?

Say they block all Obama candidates until the primaries for some reasons they make up, and then figure that the next candidate is quite acceptable actually. Because then they either have won their primaries or have lost them anyway.

And hope that for the next election cycle all is old news.


I think this is likely. Harsh talk until after the primaries are over, and quiet retreat before the general (if the nominee is a moderate).

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:19 pm 
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kitoba wrote:
arcosh wrote:
What about the time between the primaries and the general election?

Say they block all Obama candidates until the primaries for some reasons they make up, and then figure that the next candidate is quite acceptable actually. Because then they either have won their primaries or have lost them anyway.

And hope that for the next election cycle all is old news.


I think this is likely. Harsh talk until after the primaries are over, and quiet retreat before the general (if the nominee is a moderate).


I doubt it will go down this way. The reason is that getting a discouraged, fed up with "RINOs that let that commie Obama wreck our country!!!11!!1" party base out to vote is their path to victory. If they can trumpet in November "Vote for our guy, he'll keep the Supreme Court conservative!" they have a slightly better chance at victory. If everyone's grumpy Uncle Joe and Aunt Fannie get out to the voting booth, afraid of a liberal Supreme Court, its easier to win.

The sad fact is that getting Democratic messaging out is an exercise in herding cats; with the pervasive RW bubble the Republicans can get an organized, coherent (if frequently false) message out to their followers much more easily.

Truth be told, I'd be terrified of the Supreme Court going 5-4 liberal if I were a conservative voter. The court has been an agent of change since the beginning, and has continued to advance a more progressive agenda than the Republican party on civil rights since the 50s even with Republican nominees on the court.

As a "liberal", I believe that a change of balance in the court will be an excellent start to bringing civil rights, election reform, and a variety of other causes much closer to the consensus of first world countries than where the US sits now. I'd like to see Bernie as POTUS, but I'd trade a good Supreme for that result any day; the results of getting the right person on the Supreme Court would outlast the results of 4 or 8 years of the Presidency.

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2016 4:25 pm 
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Tee-hee. Obama nominated Merrick Garland, a guy so far from Kagan and Sotomayor it's insane.

I don't think for a second the White House expects Garland to have a single chance at the seat on the SC, but it's sure a finger straight in the eye of Senate Republicans.

"Want to play obstructionist? I'll give you a guy you'd have danced naked on your desk to get nominated the last two times we played this game."

Well played, Mr. President. Well played.

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:56 pm 
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I could see the republicans holding out and not confirming anyone and then Obama making an appointment when the congress is not in session.

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:26 pm 
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He could, but wouldn't get much for it. As I recall whoever it is would have to be confirmed by the next Senate anyway, so why saddle Clinton with someone she may not want?

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:56 pm 
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He could have a quiet, unofficial chat with Clinton and then nominate someone she does want, surely? Assuming it's someone he also wants, of course.

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:47 pm 
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There's nothing keeping them from doing it that way, but if it's really her nominee then she may want to do it herself. Politics, don't you know.

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:15 pm 
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It is NOT her nominee and should not be. We've been almost six months now with a even court!

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 11:40 pm 
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Yes, but if Obama cannot get his nominee through the current Senate, then a hypothetical president Clinton will be facing a new Senate and it will be her nominee. If he can, then of course that's different; but this entire hypothetical is based on continued Republican refusal to do their jobs until next Senate is seated (which seems to be the way to bet).

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:37 am 
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I still think they might try and confirm Garland after the election when they're facing the prospect of a Clinton nomination.

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:26 am 
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Silly Green Monkey wrote:
It is NOT her nominee and should not be.


...they're on the same side, right? It seems reasonable to me that there may be some candidate that they both agree would do a really good job, and I don't really think they have much to gain from political posturing against each other, particularly in private. Said nominee might be Obama's second choice, or Clinton's third choice, but nonetheless... I mean, I don't know that much about American politics, but it does seem that if they both push for the same candidate, that candidate has pretty good odds, right?

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:20 pm 
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Now that it looks pretty clear the next President will either be Clinton or Trump, I would think the GOP would want to hurry up and confirm Obama's nominee...

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:18 pm 
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It's not about side, Obama is president right now and at the time of Scalia's death, had a full year to go. It's his duty to fill the empty spaces as quickly as possible.

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 Post subject: Re: Replacing Scalia
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:32 pm 
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Yes, but...he can only nominate someone to the Federal judiciary. It's up to the Republican majority in the Senate whether or not to give those nominees a confirmation vote; and in the unlikely event they do, whether or not to confirm them. Before Obama even got to name a candidate for the open seat in the Supremes, the Republicans in the Senate all publicly announced that they would not give anyone Obama chose a confirmation vote under any circumstances.

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